Dubai will account for the majority of this pipeline, with apartment-led mixed-use communities continuing to dominate new launches, while Abu Dhabi focuses more on premium villas and waterfront neighbourhoods.
Across the broader Gulf region, residential supply is expected to increase from approximately 6.26 million units in 2025 to 7.28 million units by 2030, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE accounting for the bulk of new supply. Saudi Arabia’s residential stock is estimated to grow by 499,000 units during this period, reaching 3.45 million by 2030, driven by giga projects in Riyadh and Jeddah.
“Dubai has led this transformation, establishing itself as a global metropolis fuelled by foreign ownership, massive infrastructure investments and ambitious strategies,” said Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director, Alpen Capital.
According to Ahmad, the region’s real estate industry is expected to witness steady supply across residential, commercial, hospitality and retail segments over the next few years, largely supported by continued government spending and investments in world-class infrastructure.
What This Means for Rental Prices
A supply increase of this scale typically shifts the balance between landlords and tenants. The report stated that supply growth in the GCC is becoming more “structured” and increasingly aligned with demand rather than speculative expansion, which could reduce the risk of sharp corrections.
However, with nearly 390,000 additional homes entering the UAE market over five years, rental growth is likely to moderate if deliveries outpace new household formation. The study highlights that population growth, expatriate inflows and urbanisation remain strong demand drivers.
The UAE’s population has surpassed 11 million in 2025, according to Worldometer, with continued inflow of expatriates and high-net-worth individuals supporting both mid-tier and luxury segments. If those inflows remain steady, the additional supply may ease pressure without triggering a widespread rent correction. But in sub-markets where deliveries cluster heavily, tenants could gain greater negotiating power.
Property Price Outlook
The report from Alpen stated that supply across the GCC is entering a more disciplined phase, with greater emphasis on mixed-use developments, asset quality and long-term livability.
“Over the coming years, we expect supply–demand dynamics across the GCC to become more balanced. Large-scale developments are being phased more strategically, with a clear emphasis on quality, mixed-use formats, and demand-led execution,” said Sharmin Karanjia, Executive Director, Alpen Capital.
Karanjia noted that development trends are shifting towards master-planned, sustainable, and technology-enabled communities focused on long-term liveability. While certain sub-markets may experience short-term oversupply pressures, well-located and high-quality projects are likely to continue seeing strong absorption and pricing support.
“As major development zones reach operational maturity, investors will have a broad base of high-quality assets maintaining interest from both regional and international buyers,” Sharmin added.
Future Development Drivers
High disposable incomes, steady population growth, expatriate inflows, and a favourable tax environment will remain key demand drivers across the region. Future development pipelines will feature mixed-use projects, enhanced asset quality, sustainability, and the integration of residential, commercial and lifestyle components.
In the commercial segment, office supply across the GCC is estimated to expand from 33.3 million sqm in 2025 to 42.4 million sqm by 2030, with over 65 per cent of new supply delivered in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the existing pipeline.
The findings align with broader market trends, as GCC real estate markets sustain growth momentum driven by infrastructure investment and easing monetary conditions. Meanwhile, property buyers shift to value-driven approaches, prioritizing developer credibility and rental yields over speculative gains.
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