Two weeks after the onset of regional conflict on February 28, a significant divergence has emerged between Dubai’s physical real estate market and its listed equities, as property transactions rebound while financial markets continue to reprice risk.
Transaction Liquidity Rebounds After Initial Shock
Following an initial risk-off pause, the physical property market demonstrated a notable bounce-back in the second week of March. According to Dubai Land Department records analyzed by The Real Estate Reports, total transaction value on a headline basis, including land transactions, surged to Dhs15.66 billion in the week of March 9–15, representing a 51% increase in value and a 58% jump in transaction counts over the previous week.
However, a closer examination reveals the recovery was primarily volume-driven. When excluding land plots to remove the volatility of high-value land deals, built value grew 13% to Dhs8.26 billion while transaction volume rose 56% to 4,327 deals. The discrepancy between modest value growth and surging volume indicates the market remains operational under more cautious, broader-based participation, with average ticket sizes softening.
Off-Plan Sales Maintain Market Dominance
The structural integrity of the market appears to have held. Off-plan sales continued to command the lion’s share of activity, accounting for 63% of built property value in the second week of March, compared to 66% in the week immediately following the conflict’s start.
The most visible shift within this segment was a rotation toward villas. Off-plan villa sales rose to approximately 23% of the segment’s value, up from 16%, while the ready market similarly saw increased interest in landed homes over commercial assets. This suggests selective risk-taking by buyers who are prioritizing tangible residential assets over more sensitive commercial segments.
Mortgage registrations nearly doubled to 1,053 in the second week of March, demonstrating that the fundamental infrastructure of the property market remains intact. Earlier this week, property services handled over 563,920 customers throughout 2025, reflecting the sector’s operational capacity.
DFM Real Estate Index Plunges 13.8%
The resilience in physical transactions stands in stark contrast to the Dubai Financial Market. Since trading resumed on March 4, aided by a temporary 5% limit-down threshold to prevent panic, equities have undergone a sustained de-risking phase.
The DFM General Index (DFMGI) fell 5.7% in the second week of March on a turnover of 1.52 billion shares, nearly double the volume of the prior week. The pain was most acute in the Real Estate Index (DFMREI), which slumped 13.8% last week as investors demanded a higher risk premium for regional exposure.
“While the physical market shows signs of a recovery in activity, the heavy-volume sell-off on the DFM suggests that financial markets may be pricing in a more prolonged period of uncertainty.”
Growing Gap Between Sentiment and Real Economy
The data highlights a widening gap between sentiment-driven equities and real economy property transactions. In the stock market, liquid shares are being sold as investors demand higher risk premiums for regional exposure. In the physical market, the normalization of mortgage registrations and sustained transaction volumes suggest the operational framework of the industry remains intact.
Ali Shahin, founder of The Real Estate Reports, noted the contrast between the two markets, stating that while Dubai real estate is proving it can operate under pressure, listed counterparts are absorbing the brunt of the geopolitical shock.
The divergence comes as global capital continues flowing into Dubai property, with industry leaders citing structural advantages and a diversified buyer base. Despite regional tensions causing an initial pause, off-plan demand has held firm, with luxury sales continuing across premium locations.
For now, Dubai real estate is proving it can operate under pressure, even as its listed counterparts absorb the brunt of the geopolitical shock. The question remains whether financial markets are pricing in risks that the physical market has yet to fully experience, or whether the resilience on display will ultimately validate current transaction levels.
