Dubai’s property sector concluded 2025 with landmark performance metrics, recording over 200,000 sales transactions—an 18.8% increase over 2024—as both off-plan and ready property segments outperformed previous years, according to a report by Cavendish Maxwell.
Residential prices rose 12.1% during the year, down from 16.5% growth in 2024, while rental increases moderated to 11-12% by year-end compared to 13-15% earlier in the year, signaling a gradual market stabilization.
Off-Plan Dominance Intensifies Market Concentration
Off-plan transactions represented 72.9% of total real estate activity in Dubai, up from 69.3% in 2024, with transaction volumes reaching 146,400 units—a 25% year-on-year increase. This surge was driven by sustained developer confidence and robust investor appetite for future developments.
Ready property sales recorded more modest but steady growth, reaching 54,400 transactions, up 5% compared to 2024, supported by stable demand from end-users and investors seeking immediate occupancy opportunities.
The market’s increasing reliance on off-plan sales, however, creates concentration risks, making it potentially vulnerable to shifts in launch momentum and buyer sentiment.
Supply Dynamics Show Persistent Delivery Gaps
Approximately 40,400 residential units were completed in 2025, significantly below the initial projection of 82,600 units, resulting in a materialization rate of just 48.9%. Despite falling short of targets, actual completions were 16.4% higher than the 34,700 units delivered in 2024.
Looking ahead, around 110,500 residential units are projected for delivery in 2026, though historical completion patterns suggest actual deliveries may range between 33,000 and 50,000 units, with some projects likely spilling into 2027.
Apartments are expected to dominate upcoming completions, representing 84.3% of projected units through 2028. Key locations including Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai South, Business Bay, Dubai Residence Complex and DAMAC Lagoons are forecast to contribute 30.7% of all projected deliveries during this period.
Luxury Segment Surges 47% in Transaction Volumes
Dubai’s luxury real estate segment recorded approximately 2,500 transactions in 2025, marking a 47.1% increase compared to the previous year. Off-plan sales led growth with a 52.6% year-on-year increase, accounting for 70.5% of all luxury transactions.
The ultra-luxury segment exhibited robust performance with 302 transactions totaling Dh27.9 billion, representing increases of 31.9% in volume and 53.7% in value compared to 2024, highlighting growing preference among high-net-worth individuals for Dubai as both a residential and investment destination.
Economic Fundamentals Remain Supportive
Despite emerging supply pressures, broader macroeconomic fundamentals continue supporting the market. UAE GDP growth is projected at 5.2% in 2026, with Dubai expected to expand by 4.5%, supported by ongoing infrastructure investment, population growth, and sustained tourism momentum.
Tourism is projected to maintain momentum with visitor volumes expected to surpass prior-year levels, while business activity indicators remain positive, providing continued support across housing, retail and commercial sectors.
Market Enters Transition Phase
Looking ahead, Dubai’s real estate market is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, though entering a critical transition phase where supply pressures, moderating growth trajectories and potential external headwinds require heightened vigilance.
While a sharp correction appears unlikely given Dubai’s solid macroeconomic foundation, diversified economy and sustained population growth, stakeholders should prepare for a more balanced environment characterized by moderate appreciation and heightened selectivity.
The market’s performance contrasts with record results posted by developers in 2025, suggesting continued confidence in long-term fundamentals despite near-term moderation signals.